THE LAW OF HAMMURABI
"If a builder builds a house and the house collapses and causes the death of the owner..."
...the builder shall be put to death. This is the foundation of civilization: You must own the risk of your actions.
This is the Positive Case of Symmetry. When decision-makers share the risk, they are careful. Systems become robust because bad actors are filtered out by their own mistakes.
THE INTERVENTIONISTA
"He breaks the system, but YOU pay the price."
The bureaucrat, the pundit, the warmonger. They have upside (promotion, status) but no downside (they don't suffer when their policies fail).
This is the Negative Case (Asymmetry). Without Skin in the Game, incompetence accumulates. The system becomes fragile because errors are not punished.
"Symmetry applies to individuals. But in groups, a different force takes over: The Asymmetry of Commitment."
RENORMALIZATION
How a tiny, intolerant minority dominates the flexible majority through nested layers.
The majority is flexible (they don't care). The minority is intolerant (they care a lot). To function together, the flexible majority adapts to the minority. This 'renormalizes' the system at every level.
"Minority Rule shows how groups behave. But what happens when individuals manage *other people's* money?"
THE AGENCY PROBLEM
Heads I win, Tails you lose. The transfer of fragility from the banker to the public.
The Agency Problem is the separation of Risk and Reward. The banker keeps the bonus (upside) but transfers the risk to the public (bailout).
"The Banker survives because he transfers risk. But for the rest of us, risk is cumulative."
THE GREAT FILTER
Survival is a sequential process. You must pass through every wall.
This is Ergodicity. 'Average' returns don't matter if you blow up. To succeed, you must first survive.
"If you survive the Great Filter long enough, a new law emerges."
THE TEST OF TIME
Time is the only judge. What has survived will likely survive.
The Lindy Effect. For non-perishable things (ideas, technologies), mortality decreases with age. Time is the ultimate stress test.
"You've learned the laws. Now comes the test: Will you practice what you've learned, or remain a spectator?"
THE INCERTO
The complete series on uncertainty, risk, and decision-making under opacity.
ANTIFRAGILE
Things That Gain from Disorder
Some systems benefit from shocks. They thrive in chaos. This is Antifragility.
THE BLACK SWAN
The Impact of the Highly Improbable
Rare events dominate history. We are blind to randomness.
FOOLED BY RANDOMNESS
The Hidden Role of Chance
Success is often luck disguised as skill. We overestimate our control.